Factbox-Analysts outlook 2022 for Chinese assets
SYDNEY (Reuters) – Investment firms have started publishing forecasts for Chinese asset prices next year, and after a battered 12 months in financial markets, even bulls have a muted outlook.
The Hang Seng stock index has fallen around 13% this year, and the MSCI China index has lost around 20% against a 12% rise in global stocks.
On December 2, the Hang Seng was 23,714, the MSCI China at 86.733 and the blue chip CSI300 at 4,854.6.
Here is a summary of some forecasts for Chinese assets at the end of 2022:
HANG SENG MSCI CHINA INVESTMENT CSI300 USD / CNY
TARGET TARGET TARGET TARGET TARGET
Goldman Sachs 105 5,500 6.2
Morgan Stanley 25,000 95 5,250 6.4
* GOLDMAN SACHS
“We believe Chinese stocks will have a better year in 2022 as the market recovers from a major correction and moves into a ‘hopeful’ phase, where price / earnings expansion typically outweighs growth. weak fundamental and generating strong equity gains. “
* MORGAN STANLEY
“MSCI China had its worst relative decline in performance against major emerging markets in 2021… despite a year of record underperformance, we still see lingering risks pointing to higher volatility or more downside in the near term. This makes us believe now is not a good time to turn bullish at a broad index level. “
“We think the markets have been overzealous in selling Chinese equities … most funds are underweight and as the focus returns to growth in China, we believe this market will rebound. “
** Swiss credit
“In a relatively favorable political environment and reasonable liquidity, we remain constructive in the Chinese A-share markets, despite the possible negative impact of the Fed’s expected tightening cycle. The Hong Kong stock market is likely to have a greater impact of macro and market volatilities, as we expect sector rotation to return to growth. ”
(Reporting by Tom Westbrook and Winni Zhou; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Shailesh Kuber)