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Home›European Terms›‘Four-week window’: Biden aims to learn from Obama’s mistakes with swift action to deter Putin from invading Ukraine

‘Four-week window’: Biden aims to learn from Obama’s mistakes with swift action to deter Putin from invading Ukraine

By Wilbur Moore
December 19, 2021
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Fearing to repeat the mistakes made in 2014, when the United States and Europe were caught off guard by Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Biden asked his national security team to use all possible tools. in an attempt to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin while a possible invasion was still assessed in several months, a senior US official told CNN.

“What we have done is very calculated,” said the official. “But we only have a window of about four weeks from now” to get there, he added.

But as Russian troops continued to amass near the Ukrainian border, quiet diplomacy quickly turned into clear public warnings for Putin to back down or face harsh sanctions and increased military aid from states. -United with Ukraine. Senior Biden officials are now stressing that the consequences would go beyond anything Russia faced after its 2014 land grab.

“The sanctions we imposed on Russia in 2014 were largely aimed at hampering the medium and long-term development of some Russian state-owned enterprises by restricting their access to US capital markets and technology,” an official said. the White House.

In contrast, the options on the table now “would be overwhelming, immediate and inflict significant costs on the Russian economy and its financial system.”

The intelligence community came under fire in 2014 when Biden was vice president, for what some lawmakers said was a failure to predict Russia’s incursion into Crimea until it was too late. And after that attack, Biden’s pressure to arm Ukraine and impose extremely severe sanctions on Russia was largely rejected by President Barack Obama.

Now in charge, Biden wanted to do things very differently, officials said.

“This administration has been much more proactive, and there is now a more realistic feeling that Putin is able to absorb a lot of pain in an effort to impose costs on the United States and our allies,” the Democratic representative said. from New Jersey, Tom Malinowski. , who served as the State Department’s top human rights official from April 2014 to January 2017.

This resulted in much stronger intelligence sharing with Ukraine on Russia’s planning than anything that happened in 2014, sources familiar with the process said – in part because the Ukrainian government is “a more reliable partner “today than it was then,” said one. former senior NATO official, and in part because Biden firmly believes that Ukraine cannot be excluded from discussions about its future.

The administration also shared unusually detailed intelligence about Russia’s movements with NATO, the G7 and European allies early on, European diplomats told CNN.

“I didn’t see this same level of coordination in early 2014,” said the former senior NATO official, who retired in September 2021. “This administration has been much more multilateral in its approach – c ‘is new, and it is the result of building on a lot of positive work that has been done amid the Covid-19 pandemic to increase political cohesion and the exchange of information between partners. ”

However, Malinowski and other officials noted that the situation is now different from 2014 in important ways.

“What Putin is preparing for here requires much more visible action than what we saw in 2014,” said Malinowski. “The forces he is amassing are exactly the forces you would amass if you prepared for a total ground invasion of the country, which is not what happened in 2014 with the Little Green Men of Russia.”

The Russian military is also “in a very different situation in terms of capabilities, force structure and posture compared to 2014-2015,” said Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies program research program. at the CNA. And the United States has a much better understanding of that, said the former senior NATO official.

“We have increased intelligence capabilities, an increased basic position in the East, better satellite images, more political cohesion,” he said. “All of this has given the United States and its allies much better warning than in 2014.”

Yet current and former officials have told CNN they see similar mistakes happening – and similar signs from Russia that it is not taking US threats seriously.

“I certainly see things that are being done better in terms of taking the threat seriously and working very closely with our allies, which I think is essential,” said Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, who has served. as the commanding general of the United States. Army Europe from November 2014 to December 2017.

“But there are still a lot of mixed messages coming from the White House and a few unforced errors that the Kremlin must be quite happy with,” Hodges said, including Biden’s revelation earlier this month as sending US troops in Ukraine is not underway. Table.

“I agree this is not the time for US military action,” he said. “But why announce this? It was basically a concession when the Kremlin only increased its demands.”

Biden’s comment also reinforced Russia’s belief that, especially after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the United States will not want to get bogged down in another war abroad.

The National Security Council is also wary of sending certain types of equipment and weapons to Ukraine that could be viewed by Russia as provocative, such as air defense systems, at a time when the United States and their allies are trying to defuse Moscow. Obama has refused to provide Ukraine with deadly aid, also fearing to provoke Russia further – but this restraint has done nothing to deter continued attacks by Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine or to get Russia to give up Crimea.

“The biggest thing that provokes Russians,” said Hodges, “is when we look weak and disjointed.”

An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that while the military assistance already provided by the United States is “very much appreciated,” it would not be enough to deter the type of attack the Russians seem to be planning.

“The US military assistance, while much appreciated, is primarily aimed at deterring the Green Men of 2014-15 and other Russian-orchestrated proxy attacks,” the adviser said. “Urgent air and missile defense technology is needed to deal with an all-out Russian attack, and this was requested over a month ago. There is confusion in Kiev as to why this is being held back at in light of such damning information the Biden administration has shared. “

This story has been updated with comments from a Ukrainian presidential adviser.

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