Over the past year, a new phase of violence has emerged in war-torn Yemen between the Saudi-led coalition and Houthi rebels. From the stalemate in military operations by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to the continued escalation of the Houthis and the recruitment of child soldiers into the war, Yemenis see no end to the battle in sight as the conflict enters its brutal eighth year.

An upsurge in violence could have regional ramifications after the Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone attack on an oil facility near Abu Dhabi International Airport on January 17 that killed two Indian nationals and a Pakistani national.^[1] While the Emirati government has warned of “serious repercussions” for the Houthis, and various allies like the US and Israel have also denounced the attack, it demonstrates how Abu Dhabi could, once again, be drawn into the conflict despite its previous demands for withdrawal. from Yemen. Moreover, there could be a hardening of the position against Iran, which supports the Houthis.

In 2021, Houthi rebels stepped up their attack on the Saudi-backed government of Abed Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, making several inroads in Marib and Shabwa governorates. This follows US President Joe Biden’s decision to halt “relevant arms sales” to Saudi Arabia on February 4, 2021, after his inauguration, following growing criticism over Washington’s culpability in the war. . Yet this obviously prompted the rebel faction to exploit their rivals’ withdrawal.

READ: Houthi leader says US and Israel have ordered UAE to step up action in Yemen

The Houthis had set their sights on Marib, a key governorate seen as the last bastion of the Hadi government. While the battle for Marib was initially at an impasse, the Houthis have now turned their attention to other parts of the country. The faction even moved to the Shabwa region, an oil-rich province in southern Yemen. In September, the Houthis made some gains in the northern part of the governorate.

Role of key actors in the conflict

Faced with significant reputational repercussions from the war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia initially moderated its operations in the war in Yemen, particularly worried about further pressure from the United States. The Houthis’ renewed campaign has threatened Saudi geostrategic interests in Yemen, and the group’s projectile fire at the Kingdom has presented new security threats.

Although Saudi Arabia continued its airstrikes to protect Hadi’s forces, Riyadh tried to ensure it could still moderate its role in the conflict to avoid further criticism. Following a deadly attack blamed on a Saudi airstrike on a prison in Saada, northern Yemen, the Saudi-led coalition said it would investigate the incident.^[2]

The UAE has once again stepped up its involvement in the conflict. Earlier, the UAE announced a “withdrawal” from the war in 2019. However, their ambitions are to secure influence in southern Yemen through their partner on the ground. The Southern Transitional Council (STC) was still very much alive. This contrasted it with Saudi Arabia, which supported the Hadi government.

READ: Qatar wants to build bridges between the United States and Iran

Abu Dhabi was less concerned about the Houthis’ presence ahead of the latest escalation and was even prepared to tolerate the group if it stayed away from southern Yemen. He even saw the Al-Islah political party, which is aligned with the Hadi government, as a bigger threat. The United Arab Emirates sees the organization as a regional offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which it has tried to fight by supporting reactionary “anti-Islamist” political actors.

The UAE and the Saudis are back together

Recently, however, the Houthis’ renewed threat has presented them as a common enemy, forcing the UAE and Saudi Arabia to ignore their differences, at least for now. After all, the Big Giants, backed by the United Arab Emirates, a militia allied with the STC, joined the government to fight the group. On January 25, the militia announced that it had taken control of Harib, Marib’s second largest district, from the Houthis.^[3] And by January 30, Hadi loyalists and the Giants Brigades had taken over more districts in the crucial governorate, putting the Houthis on their backs.

After all, the UAE supported the STC’s attempt to take control of Shabwa, given its strategic location and abundant natural resources, and the Houthis posed a threat to Abu Dhabi and the STC’s ambitions. since they set their sights on the governorate of Shabwa. And, given that the Houthis have also been pushed back from Shabwa as the coalition continues to make gains in Marib, the rebel faction is obviously forced to back down.

READ: US condemns Houthi missile attack on Abu Dhabi

In response, the Houthis escalated the conflict with the United Arab Emirates, including seizing an Emirati cargo ship, which they said had weapons on January 3. As the Houthis have pushed the fight further towards the UAE, the conflict could escalate further and the UAE will take a more proactive role in the battle against the Houthis to ensure they can protect their ambitions hegemons in southern Yemen.

New dynamics emerge in the conflict

The war could therefore put the brakes on de-escalation efforts between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, which have been ongoing since 2020, especially since Tehran increased its support for the Houthis.^[4] Israel expressed support for Abu Dhabi following the Houthi-claimed drone attack on Abu Dhabi, while Tel Aviv also offered security and intelligence support to Abu Dhabi following the first attack by the Houthis. Houthis in January.^[5] And when Israeli President Isaac Herzog visited Abu Dhabi on January 30, the first visit by an Israeli president to the United Arab Emirates in history, Emirati authorities said they intercepted a third Houthi missile strike. which coincided with Herzog’s visit.^[6]

It is likely that Israel and the United Arab Emirates will continue to tighten their regional alliance accordingly. And, as with Saudi Arabia and Iran, their humble efforts to restore their decades-long rivalry may face further challenges, especially as the Houthis pose new threats to the security of Riyadh and the rest of the world. Yemen.

Thus, the conflict is certainly experiencing a new dynamic. Although the Hadi government and the STC have united against the Houthis, the two actors are unlikely to be willing to put aside their fight for control of southern Yemen in the future. Without strong international action, the conflict could escalate further and scar many Yemenis for generations to come.

(Source of this article: Anadolu News Agency)

[1] https://www.Reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-says-suspects-drones-behind-abu-dhabi-fires-yemens-houthis-claim-attack-2022-01-17/

[2] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/21/several-killed-in-airstrike-on-yemen-prison

[3] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/01/yemeni-government-forces-make-new-gains-marib

[4] https://www.csis.org/analysis/iranian-and-houthi-war-against-saudi-arabia

[5] https://www.Reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-offers-uae-security-intelligence-support-after-deadly-houthi-attack-2022-01-18/

[6] https://apnews.com/article/travel-dubai-united-arab-emirates-air-travel-yemen-1e103b0a537aa69eab242ddc9db41799

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