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EU Northern Ireland trade protocols ‘crazy’, expert says
The EU’s claim that Northern Ireland is in a good position as part of the EU’s single market and the UK’s single market has been proven wrong, Monteith said.
Reacting to a report from the University of Strathclyde, he told Express.co.uk that the nation is now “clearly in the worst of both worlds”.
The first detailed economic modeling of the impact of the NI Protocol on the economy of Northern Ireland was published by the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde, an organization which had previously promoted UK membership. United to the EU.
The Northern Ireland economy is expected to suffer in terms of GDP, jobs and trade with the rest of the UK, according to the report.
The Fraser of Allander report from Strathclyde University estimates that due to the EU protocol, Northern Ireland’s GDP will fall 2.6%, NI exports to Britain will fall by 6, 1% and its exports to the rest of the world will drop 8.6%.
The report goes on to say that NI employment will be 1.25% lower, real wages will fall 3.9% and overall consumption will fall 2.5% – all against expectations before the protocol was introduced. .
Brian Monteith told Express.co.uk: “This first economic modeling of the impact of the Northern Ireland Protocol on the province’s business models suggests that NI-GB internal commerce is actually damaged and there is There is no reason to suggest that Northern Ireland enjoys “the best of both worlds” as suggested currently by the EU and in the past by Michael Gove.
The European Commission and Mr Gove have both argued the ‘best of both worlds’ in that Northern Ireland is part of the UK but within the customs union and the EU’s single market. EU.
Lord Frost and Northern Ireland Protocol
Former MEP and Chief Brexit Party Whip Brian Monteith
In his article published yesterday by the Brexit think tank Facts4EU.Org, the former Brexit Party MEP sharply criticized the EU-UK protocol on Northern Ireland.
Mr Monteith said: ‘While the position of this institute remains unchanged on the benefits of the UK’s past membership of the EU, its latest estimates do not reassure the EU, the Republic of Ireland or the EU. other supporters of the protocol. He rejects arguments in favor of the province’s current status providing economic advantage to Northern Ireland, as has always been claimed. “
The University’s Fraser of Allander report models the effects of the NI protocol on the economy of Northern Ireland. Its findings suggest that NI’s GDP will fall – with mitigation measures to reduce the impact of the Protocol, the impact is unlikely to be less than a 1.7% drop in GDP.
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All of this runs counter to expectations over a nominal 15-year period compared to the period before the Protocol was introduced. Regarding the trade position, the Institute estimates that imports to NI companies in the rest of the UK fell by 5.9%, while imports from ROW increased by 0.5%.
Mr Monteith added: “The only economic fact established around the Northern Ireland Protocol is that there are no economic facts to inform the debate. Despite deafening political rumors, grievances and counterclaims, all actors are flying blind – based on readings taken in the Republic of Ireland.
“By definition, these cannot capture the data necessary to confirm the impact of the protocol on where it is actually applied – Northern Ireland.”
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He added: “The Fraser of Allander Institute report – which primarily examines the impact of the Protocol’s non-tariff barriers – helps to some extent to inform the debate about what is happening on the ground. It blows out of the water the idea that Northern Ireland is enjoying the “best of both worlds”.
The Institute’s report maintains its view that the best outcome for Northern Ireland would have been for the UK to remain in the European Union. Mr Monteith rejected this and said: ‘The findings of an economic institution which has repeatedly favored staying in the EU support the positions of the UK government, protocol opponents and Brexiteers who are still waiting for a real Brexit. “
The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) has yet to release its findings on Northern Ireland’s full trade situation in the context of its relations with the rest of the UK, the Republic of Ireland and the rest of the world.
Stormont – Northern Ireland
EU Vice-President Maros Sefcovic
The latest statistics are from 2018/2019 when Theresa May was Prime Minister. NISRA has come under heavy criticism from Mr Monteith. He said: “The lack of hard data is a failure of the Northern Ireland office and needs to be addressed urgently.
By comparison, the Republic of Ireland’s statistics for imports and exports of goods are as recent as in September 2021. “
Northern Ireland is currently operating under temporary ‘grace period’ agreements before the full impact of EU regulations is applied.
Commenting on this, Mr Monteith said: “It can only get worse when the relaxations are no longer prolonged and the real impact of the NI protocol is felt.”
Brexit Party MEPs in Brussels last March
Lord Frost tweeted publicly following his latest round of meetings with EU Vice President Maros Sefcovic on Friday.
He wrote: “I stressed the need to move on all the difficult issues created by the protocol, including customs, agri-food rules, subsidy policy, VAT / excise and governance, including the Court of Justice. justice. We will not find a lasting solution that does not solve all these problems. “
He continued: “The intensive talks will continue next week. Maros Sefcovic and I will meet twice to guide the process, hoping to make useful progress towards agreed solutions before Christmas. “
Express.co.uk has contacted NISRA and DUP for comment on this story.